Risk Assessment
Combined risk analysis integrating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability
Population at Risk
1,503,997
From flood
Assets at Risk
$4230.0M
Infrastructure & property
Very High Risk Areas
2
Requiring immediate action
High Risk Areas
2
Priority for intervention
Risk Calculation Formula
Risk Score = ∛(Hazard × Exposure × Vulnerability)
Where each component is normalized to 0-1 scale. Cube root ensures balanced weighting.
Hazard Score
Probability × Intensity
Exposure Score
Population × Assets
Vulnerability Score
Sensitivity / Adaptive Capacity
Risk Matrix
Hazard-Exposure vs Vulnerability (bubble size = population at risk)
Multi-Hazard Risk Comparison
Risk scores by district across all hazard types
Risk Assessment Details
| District | Hazard Score | Exposure Score | Vulnerability | Risk Score | Population | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kigamboni flood | 82% | 78% | 85% | 82% | 133,519 | very high |
Ilala flood | 85% | 88% | 68% | 80% | 577,469 | very high |
Temeke flood | 72% | 75% | 78% | 75% | 377,069 | high |
Kinondoni flood | 65% | 70% | 52% | 62% | 176,819 | high |
Ubungo flood | 58% | 55% | 62% | 58% | 239,121 | medium |
Risk Assessment Methodology
Framework: Based on IPCC AR5 risk framework (Risk = f(Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability))
Hazard Analysis: Climate models, historical data, return period analysis
Exposure Mapping: GIS overlay of hazard zones with population and asset data
Risk Classification: Very High (≥75%), High (60-74%), Medium (45-59%), Low (<45%)