Adaptation Scenarios
Cost-benefit analysis of adaptation measures and intervention planning
Total Investment Needed
$442.0M
All adaptation measures
Total Benefits
$1524.0M
Avoided losses
Average BCR
3.4
Benefit-Cost Ratio
Total NPV
$864.0M
Net Present Value
Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) Calculation
BCR = Present Value of Benefits / Present Value of Costs
BCR > 1 indicates a worthwhile investment; higher values mean better return on investment
NPV = Σ (Benefitt - Costt) / (1 + r)t where r = 3% discount rate
Benefit-Cost Ratio by Measure
Higher BCR indicates better return on investment
Adaptation Measures Portfolio
Click to add to scenario builder| Measure | Category | Cost | Benefit | BCR | NPV | Priority | Effectiveness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Climate-Resilient Building Codes Updated building codes requiring flood-resistant construction and heat mitigation measures | institutional | $5.0M | $45.0M | 7.5 | $38.0M | high | medium | |
Flood Early Warning System Comprehensive early warning system with sensors, communication networks, and community alert protocols | institutional | $15.0M | $85.0M | 4.2 | $52.0M | critical | high | |
Mangrove Restoration Restoration of 500 hectares of mangrove ecosystems along the coastline | nature based | $25.0M | $95.0M | 3.2 | $58.0M | high | high | |
Msimbazi River Basin Restoration Wetland restoration, riverbank stabilization, and green infrastructure along Msimbazi River | nature based | $85.0M | $320.0M | 3.1 | $185.0M | critical | high | |
Health System Preparedness Strengthening health system capacity for climate-related health impacts | institutional | $22.0M | $88.0M | 2.9 | $55.0M | high | medium | |
Urban Green Spaces & Tree Planting Expansion of urban parks and street tree planting for heat reduction | nature based | $18.0M | $68.0M | 2.8 | $42.0M | medium | medium | |
Rainwater Harvesting Systems Installation of rainwater collection systems in public buildings and informal settlements | structural | $12.0M | $38.0M | 2.7 | $22.0M | medium | medium | |
Coastal Sea Walls & Defenses Construction of sea walls, breakwaters, and coastal protection structures | structural | $120.0M | $380.0M | 2.6 | $195.0M | critical | high | |
Community Relocation Program Voluntary relocation of households from highest-risk flood zones with housing support | social | $45.0M | $125.0M | 2.5 | $72.0M | medium | high | |
Urban Drainage Upgrade Upgrading storm water drainage capacity in flood-prone areas | structural | $95.0M | $280.0M | 2.4 | $145.0M | high | high |
Recommended Adaptation Pathway
This phased approach prioritizes high-BCR, low-cost measures first, building institutional capacity before major infrastructure investments.
Cost-Benefit Analysis Methodology
Benefits: Avoided damages, reduced losses, health benefits, ecosystem services
Costs: Capital costs, O&M, opportunity costs, implementation
Time Horizon: 30-year analysis period with 3% discount rate
Uncertainty: Monte Carlo simulation for confidence intervals