Climate Hazards
Temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, and extreme weather projections for Dar es Salaam
Temperature
28.1°C
+1.6°C from baseline
Annual Rainfall
1,166 mm
+6.0% change
Sea Level Rise
+24 cm
By 2050 (SSP2-4.5)
Extreme Heat Days
38 days
>35°C per year
Temperature Projections (°C)
Mean annual temperature under different scenarios
Rainfall Projections (mm/year)
Annual precipitation changes
Sea Level Rise (cm)
Relative to 2020 baseline
Extreme Heat Days Projection
Days per year exceeding 35°C
Flood Hazard by Return Period
Intensity and impact for different flood frequencies
| Return Period | Rainfall Intensity | Affected Area | Affected Population | Annual Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year | 150 mm/day | 45 km² | 320,000 | 10% |
| 50-year | 220 mm/day | 85 km² | 580,000 | 2% |
| 100-year | 280 mm/day | 120 km² | 820,000 | 1% |
Other Climate Hazards
sea level_rise
Projected sea level rise by 2100 under SSP2-4.5
Intensity: 50 cm
Affected: 210,000 people
Probability: 95%
heat stress
Extreme heat days increasing significantly
Intensity: 38 °C
Affected: 5,383,728 people
Probability: 80%
coastal erosion
Ongoing coastal erosion along shoreline
Intensity: 4 m/year
Affected: 45,000 people
Probability: 90%
storm surge
25-year return period storm surge
Intensity: 2.5 m
Affected: 175,000 people
Probability: 4%
Data Sources
- • Temperature & Rainfall: CMIP6/CORDEX-Africa regional climate models
- • Sea Level Rise: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)
- • Extreme Heat Days: CMIP6 ensemble projections
- • Flood Hazard: Historical analysis and hydrological modeling