Cost of Inaction
Economic impact projections and Expected Annual Loss (EAL) calculations
Current Annual Loss
$230.5M
2024 baseline estimate
Projected Loss (2050)
$700.0M
Under SSP2-4.5
Projected Loss (2100)
$1750.0M
Under SSP2-4.5
GDP Impact (2100)
9.2%
Projected GDP loss
Expected Annual Loss (EAL) Calculation
EAL = Σ (Probabilityi × Lossi)
Sum of losses weighted by their probability of occurrence across all hazard events
10-yr Flood EAL
$32M/year
50-yr Flood EAL
$11.6M/year
Heat Stress EAL
$42M/year
Sea Level EAL
$18M/year
Annual Loss Projections by Scenario ($M)
Total economic losses under different climate scenarios
Current Losses by Sector ($M)
Direct vs Indirect Losses ($M)
Sector Impact Details (2024 Baseline)
| Sector | Direct Loss | Indirect Loss | Total Loss | GDP Impact | Jobs Affected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
infrastructure | $45.0M | $22.5M | $67.5M | 0.8% | 12,000 |
health | $18.0M | $35.0M | $53.0M | 0.6% | 0 |
agriculture | $12.0M | $8.0M | $20.0M | 0.2% | 8,500 |
tourism | $8.0M | $15.0M | $23.0M | 0.3% | 5,200 |
transport | $25.0M | $42.0M | $67.0M | 0.8% | 3,800 |
| Total | $108.0M | $122.5M | $230.5M | 2.7% | 29,500 |
Cumulative Economic Impact Warning
SSP2-4.5 (Medium Emissions)
- • By 2050: ~$8-10 billion cumulative losses
- • By 2100: ~$35-45 billion cumulative losses
- • 180,000 jobs at risk by 2100
SSP5-8.5 (High Emissions)
- • By 2050: ~$12-15 billion cumulative losses
- • By 2100: ~$70-90 billion cumulative losses
- • 350,000 jobs at risk by 2100
Economic Impact Methodology
Direct Losses: Physical damage to buildings, infrastructure, crops, equipment
Indirect Losses: Business interruption, supply chain disruption, healthcare costs, lost productivity
GDP Impact: Based on sector contribution to regional GDP and climate damage functions
Discount Rate: 3% annual discount rate applied for NPV calculations